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��Home>>China Observer

Economy grows fast, yet not "overheated", expert

www.chinanews.cn 2007-05-23 17:18:19

Chinanews, Beijing, May 23 �C At present, Chinese national economy is
growing at a relatively fast speed. However, on the whole, economy has
not become overheated, said Zhu Baoliang, deputy head of the State
Information Center��s Economic Prediction Department, on Tuesday, the
China Securities Journal reported.
��When we say economy is overheated, we mean that GDP growth rate has
exceeded its potential growth level. At the same time, CPI has kept
growing and the growth rate has been over 5 percentage points. However,
inflation is not high at present. So it is still too early to say that
economy has become overheated,�� Zhu said.
Since the beginning of 2007, the central bank has raised the required
reserve ratio four times. As a result, the required reserve ratio has
climbed by 2 percentage points in total. In addition, the central bank
has raised the interest rate twice, one by 0.27 percentage point and 0.18
percentage point, respectively. Despite this, industrial growth and the
growths of export volume and loan release have all become faster.
Commodity price has been climbing, too. The energy consumption for per
unit GDP growth has increased. Electricity consumption elasticity
coefficient has increased from the 1.28 of last year to the current 1.40.
Generally, the national economy has been growing at a relatively fast
speed and economic growth rate has reached the potential level, Zhu said.
At present, the basic elements needed to boost the economy, such as high
investment growth, speeding up of urbanization process, the
market-oriented economic trend, globalization trend and the upgrade of
consumption structure, have not changed much fundamentally. In light of
this, the potential economic growth rate had increased from 9.5% in 2002
to 11.3% in 2006, Zhu said.
He predicted that in 2007, the GDP growth for the whole year would reach
10.5%, while CPI growth rate would be around 3%; total investment in
fixed assets would grow by 24% and total retail sales of consumer goods
would grow by 15%; in addition, import and export volume would increase
by 24% and 20%, respectively, and trade surplus would reach at least 250
billion US dollars.

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